Scientists worldwide have confirmed that the past three years have seen temperatures exceeding 1.4C above pre-industrial levels. Last year recorded a temperature of 1.41C above the baseline of 19th-century temperatures, following 2024's record heat and 2023, according to the Hadcrut5 dataset compiled by the Met Office, UEA, and Ncas. Additionally, Europe’s Copernicus Era5 analysis indicated temperatures at 1.47C above pre-industrial levels.
Long-term analyses show temperatures ranging from 1.37C to 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, with experts warning that the world is nearing the 1.5C limit established in the Paris climate agreement to prevent severe impacts such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, wildfires, and ecosystem collapse. The past 11 years have been identified as the warmest on record by scientists from Copernicus.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasized that the warmest decade on record highlights the undeniable trend towards a hotter climate. He noted, “The world is rapidly approaching the long-term temperature limit set by the Paris agreement. We are bound to pass it; the choice we now have is how to best manage the inevitable overshoot and its consequences on societies and natural systems.”
Prof Richard Allan, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, remarked on the urgency of addressing climate change, stating that sustained warmth into 2025, without the influence of El Nino, underscores the need to cut greenhouse gases across all sectors of society.
John Marsham, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Leeds, warned that the escalating impacts on ecosystems and human food and water systems could lead to a climate in his children's lifetimes that is vastly different from our natural climate, but hotter instead of colder. He highlighted that actions taken in the UK could be economically beneficial, even if other countries do not act, as renewables
“Sharp and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would slow, and eventually stop, further human-caused changes in the world’s climate,” he said.
Climate scientist Colin Morice, of the Met Office, said: “The long-term increase in global annual average temperature is driven by the human-induced rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
“Fluctuations in the year-to-year temperature largely result from natural variation in the climate system.”
Scientists confirmed the primary driver of global warming is human activity, mostly burning fossil fuels.