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| Illustration of climate change worsened rains and floods in southern Africa. |
A study conducted by the World Weather Attribution analyzed the heavy rainfall that led to severe flooding in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. The findings revealed that the region received a year's worth of rain within just 10 days.
The impact has been catastrophic, with widespread damage to housing and infrastructure estimated in the millions of dollars, alongside immense human suffering, including the tragic loss of lives.
In Mozambique, many homes and buildings were completely submerged, while roads and bridges were swept away in the South African provinces of Limpopo and Mpumalanga, as well as parts of Zimbabwe.
This study was carried out by scientists from around the globe, employing peer-reviewed methods to assess the influence of climate change on severe weather patterns and events
The affected regions in southern Africa are no strangers to heavy downpours and flooding, but scientists were alarmed by the magnitude of the recent events.
“This event was a surprise to us because we have experienced the previous ones 25 years ago, which flooded the same areas,” said Bernardino Nhantumbo, a researcher with the Mozambique weather service.
“There are places that have recorded in two to three days the rainfall that was expected for the entire rainy season, so this was very challenging to accommodate in any circumstances.”
According to Nhantumbo, Mozambique is downstream to nine international rivers, so when an event like this happens a lot of damage is expected not only because of the heavy rainfall but also because of the stream flow.
The researchers have also called for the development of climate models in Africa in order to best understand the dynamics and extent of the impact of climate change in the continent’s various regions.
According to Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College in London, the lack of climate models developed in Africa was part of the reason why most models struggled to pinpoint exactly how much worse the recent floods were made by climate change.
“All climate models that we have that are freely available are developed outside of Africa. They are all developed within climate modeling centers in the U.S., Europe and some in Asia
Major disruption
The heavy rainfall started on 26 December last year and intensified from early January. The most-extreme rainfall took place between 10 and 19 January.
The countries most affected by the floods, and analysed by the study, are Eswatini, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe, with some areas receiving up to 200mm of rain, according to the study authors.
Study author Bernardino Nhantumbo – a researcher at Mozambique’s National Institute of Meteorology – told a press briefing that in just two or three days, some areas recorded the amount of rainfall that is “expected for the whole rainy season”.
Vulnerability
The study warns that the flooding “exposed deep and persistent social vulnerability in the region”.
The authors say that a large proportion of the population – especially in urban areas – live in poor housing with “inadequate planning and insufficient provision of basic services”.
Paola Emerson, head of office at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Mozambique, told a UN press briefing about the flooding that nearly 90% of people in the country live in traditional adobe houses that “basically melt after a few days’ rains”.
Study author Renate Meyer – an adviser with the conflict and climate team at the Red Cross Red Crescent Centre – said in a WWA press briefing that the “recurring frequency of hazards such as drought and extreme rainfall have had a significant impact on communities experiencing, amongst others, displacement, health challenges, socioeconomic loss and psychological distress”.
The World Health Organization (WHO) said in a press release that the event had disrupted access to health services and increased the risks of water- and mosquito-borne diseases, as well as respiratory infections across southern Africa.